Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang: how it is viewed in the region

A comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un poses increased danger to Japan. It also has broader global implications.

The leaders signed the deal in Pyongyang on Wednesday. Putin received a lavish welcome in the city, even as North Korea faces serious food and fuel shortages. Economic activity is severely limited by sanctions.

Russia is also sanctioned by the United Nations as a result of its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Nevertheless, parts of the Russian economy continue to thrive thanks to trade with China and India. In Pyongyang, Kim told Putin he fully supports Russia’s “military operation” in Ukraine. Moreover, he offered the resources of his own army.

The precise nature of this support is unclear. Dr. Miles Yu of the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis and the Hudson Institute in Washington has suggested that North Korean commandos could be sent to join Russian soldiers on the front lines of the battle against Ukraine.

Yu also says the Russians can boost North Korea’s conventional weapons capabilities in return. However, he does not believe that Russia intends to directly support the North’s nuclear weapons program.

The North has fired many missiles over the Sea of ​​Japan, prompting warnings. It also aspires to be an internationally recognized nuclear weapons state.

The Financial Times’ Seoul correspondent Christian Davies says: “North Korea doesn’t do many things right. But they can build weapons, they can build them on a massive scale and they take war very seriously.”

A threat to Japan

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa noted the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. She warned that the regional security situation around Japan is becoming increasingly serious.

“Japan will continue to collect and analyze relevant information, and will work closely with the international community, including the United States and South Korea, to implement and fully enforce relevant Security Council resolutions,” she said.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has also repeatedly condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine as a heinous act of aggression and an attack on freedom.

“Japan will do its utmost to ensure that peace is restored to the beautiful country of Ukraine and to take solid steps toward reconstruction,” Kishida said earlier on June 12.

He signed a bilateral agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, offering humanitarian assistance, including landmine clearance. Notably, Japan’s post-war constitution prevents the country from providing lethal military aid to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Kishida has also repeatedly warned that the war in Ukraine could foreshadow a crisis in East Asia. His concerns will grow as the Russian and North Korean militaries strengthen their cooperation.

Time of trouble

The meeting between Putin and Kim in Pyongyang took place at a time of tension on the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea are waging Cold War-style psychological warfare. North Korea has dropped waste bombs on the South using balloons. The South broadcasts propaganda across the border through loudspeakers.

Earlier this month, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots to repel North Korean troops who had temporarily crossed the border.

South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Lim Soosuk said cooperation between Russia and North Korea should not evolve in a direction that conflicts with UN Security Council resolutions or the peace and stability in the undermines the region.

South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun discussed Putin’s trip to Pyongyang during an emergency phone call with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on June 14.

Campbell told Kim that Washington supports Seoul’s position. That is, the visit must not result in a “further deepening of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow in a manner that undermines regional peace and stability, in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.”

The two sides agreed to continue “airtight” coordination in light of North Korea’s actions.

Trump and Kim

A question often discussed in Seoul and Tokyo is what Donald Trump’s policy toward North Korea might be. That is, if he is re-elected as US president in November.

Trump claims that when he met Kim Jong-Un in Hanoi in February 2019, he was told North Korea was ready to dismantle the Yongbyon complex. This is a research and production facility at the heart of North Korea’s nuclear program.

In return, however, Kim wanted all sanctions against North Korea lifted. That was something the US was unwilling to offer. As he ended the talks, Trump said, “Sometimes you have to walk away, and this was one of those times.”

One of my sources in Tokyo believes Kim Jong Un is eager to renew the offer to close Yongbyon. He says Kim hopes Donald Trump would be more receptive to such a plan than President Joe Biden.

“Trump could well choose to travel to Pyongyang to sign such a deal with Kim,” my source claims. He believes this could be presented as an agreement that heralds the long-term denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The Chinese view

The relationship between China and North Korea is also currently under pressure. This is partly a response to the high level of engagement between North Korea and Russia. Both are important neighbors of China, but also rivals.

This was said by a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “China welcomes Russia to develop and strengthen ties with countries with which they have traditional friendships,” Lin Jian said.

However, China may resent losing its influence over North Korea, especially during a so-called “year of friendship” between the nations.

North Korea took the unusual step of issuing a statement criticizing China, along with South Korea and Japan, immediately after a trilateral summit between political leaders in May.

There are also signs that China has quietly removed symbols of friendship between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. Footprint symbols of the two leaders in Dalian are no longer there.

A high-level Chinese delegation took part in meetings with representatives of the South Korean government in Seoul on June 19. Moreover, this was exactly when Putin was speaking to Kim in the North. The Chinese visit was part of a so-called “two-plus-two” dialogue between the foreign and security ministers.

“We expressed our deep concern that Russian President Putin’s visit to North Korea comes at a time when North Korea has escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a series of provocations,” South Korea said Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement.

“We have asked China to play a constructive role for peace, stability and denuclearization as tensions on the Korean Peninsula arising from the strengthening of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea are against Chinese interests,” the report said.

RELATED:

Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr. Bartlett is a diplomatic correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a research fellow at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.