Strong geomagnetic storm could bring northern lights to MA this week

This week, the Northern Lights are visible in Massachusetts thanks to a “cannibalistic CME” solar storm.

Jul 29, 2024 11:28am EDT | Updated Jul 29, 2024 11:29am EDT

MASSACHUSETTS—Conditions appear favorable for Massachusetts residents to see the northern lights Wednesday after a solar storm directed toward Earth created what scientists are calling a “cannibalistic CME.” The aurora could be visible as far as the center of the country if weather conditions permit.

The aurora forecast for Monday night and early Tuesday morning predicts a G3-level storm with a Kp index of 7, a measure of the strength of the aurora. The chance of seeing the northern lights is greatest with a Kp index of at least five.

The National Weather Service is predicting clouds and a chance of rain each night through Wednesday, but if we’re lucky, the skies could clear for extended periods of time when the lights are visible.

The best chance to see the Northern Lights is on Monday evening and Tuesday morning, but it is also possible during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday.

And, space weather forecasters say, the science of predicting the timing of auroras’ arrivals is still in its infancy. The timing of auroras’ displays can vary by 24 hours, space weather forecaster Tamitha Skov said on X.

“These are just educated guesses,” she said, noting that the region of the sun where geomagnetic storms occur “is becoming increasingly complex and could continue to produce large flares in the coming days.”

“Please take timing very lightly,” Sara Housseal, a space weather forecaster and meteorologist, said on X. “With so many CMEs in play, it is extremely difficult (if not impossible) to determine specific details with timing.”

The Space Weather Prediction Center does its best to provide advance notice of geomagnetic storms that could cause radio or GPS interference, “but the forecast is not meant to be taken literally” for auroral phenomena, Housseal said.

The Space Weather Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has issued a geomagnetic storm warning through Wednesday as solar storms heading toward Earth intensify.

While not as strong as the extreme G5 geomagnetic storm in May that brought northern lights to the southern U.S. and around the world, it can still bring pink, purple, green and yellow aurora borealis visible far beyond the Arctic, to places like Idaho, northern Missouri and New York.

The aurora borealis — or aurora australis in the Southern Hemisphere — is caused by the solar wind, which carries a stream of charged particles known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, from the sun’s atmosphere. This natural phenomenon is usually visible in the oval region around Earth’s poles, but the ovals extend farther south as the solar wind intensifies.

Several M-class solar flares this past weekend, combined with a subsequent merged CME, or cannibalistic CME, caught the attention of the Space Weather Prediction Center. According to the center, more merged CMEs could be on the way.

The sunspot complex is “cracking with powerful flares — and they’re getting stronger,” Spaceweather.com reported after an impulsive X1.5 flare. Monday morning, it added: “More X-flares are on the way as the sunset complex turns directly toward Earth later today.”

People in and near the observation area who want to catch a glimpse of the ethereal display should keep an eye on the Space Weather Prediction Center’s aurora dashboard . Everything above the red line is in the observation area. To see them, get as far away from city lights as possible. Auroras can be seen any time after sunset, but the hours of 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.

Aurora activity is increasing as the sun reaches “solar maximum” in its 11-year cycle when the north and south polar magnetic fields flip. According to NOAA, more displays are likely through 2025.